How long does an Apple device last? Certainly not four years on average

From time to time we receive those studies or data analysis that pretend to us reveal groundbreaking data that all blogs, newscasts and media immediately rush to post on their covers. The latest data we have received these days, and claims to reveal how long Apple devices last: four years.

An interpretation of figures and other data that reveal to us, or at least so they intend, how long an Apple device lasts before it is discarded and abandoned without further use. The analysis has been carried out by Horace Dediu, an analyst, and without being an expert in mathematics, not even an amateur, it does not make any sense as many media publish it.

Data analysis

The data has been obtained using two figures: devices sold and devices active at this time. They are official figures given by Apple, so there can be no objection here. The interpretation made by this analyst is the following: if the devices sold I subtract the assets at this time, I get the devices that have been discarded. Here there is no doubt and everything seems more than clear. The "leap of faith" comes now for those of us who are not analysts or experts in mathematics: the half-life at a moment "t" is the duration that goes from "t" to the moment in which the devices sold were equal to those discarded at that moment "t".

We are going to suppose that we are right, because he is an analyst and because, at the moment, no one has come out saying that the methodology is wrong, so, as they say, "we accept ship." The result, according to Horace Dediu, is four years. Anyone who has several Apple devices in their home will surely disagree with this result, and it just doesn't hold up.

Mixing churras with merino

There is no point in comparing the average life of an iPhone with that of an iMac, just to take an example. The iPhone is the device that is most often changed and that, without having to perform a lot of data analysis, retires first. It's also Apple's best-selling device, and by far. This means that In this analysis, the weight that the iPhone will have is much greater than that of the iPad or Mac, devices that have a much longer lifespan. In fact, the analysis admits that there are currently 2/3 of the devices sold in all history working, since 2007, little more needs to be added.

Many people change iPhones every year or two, but It is also true that many of these iPhones are passed on to relatives or sold and remain useful to their new owners for another period of time.. But things change radically when one talks about the iPad and even worse with the Mac. My iPad 3, still functional although already aged, will turn six this March. My first MacBook will be eight years old (tuned with an SSD drive, I have to admit) and is in a second youth where it still performs very well on most tasks, and my first 2009 iMac is already nine years old. of my father who uses it daily absolutely delighted for what he needs.

IPhone changes everything

Not by chance it is the best product for Apple, the one that sells the most and the one that brings the most benefits. Apple has purposefully built an empire around the iPhone: a device that gets "dated" every year is ideal for any technology company. Because even if your iPhone 7 is fully functional, the fact that the iPhone X is already on the streets makes many consider changing it, even if they don't need it. That feeling does not occur with the iPad or Apple computers, among other things because the design remains unchanged for years, and although it seems absurd, that influences.

With 2.050.000 devices sold (including Mac, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch and iPod touch), the iPhone is estimated to have been able to sell about 1.200.000 units in all this time. ANDThis accounts for approximately 60% of Apple's total sales, so the weight of the iPhone is very high in any analysis that includes all devices without stratifying them. Of the five categories included in the analysis, only one accumulates more than half of the sample, so trying to calculate an average is unrealistic.

Conclusion: another piece of information for headlines

With all this, the data obtained does not make any sense to the majority, unless what we want is to publish a headline and start doing demagogy with the famous planned obsolescence and other terms that so many clicks generate. Horace's analysis may reflect very interesting data, I do not doubt it, but the treatment that is being given to him in most of the media is not adequate, as almost always.