So far, there is no optimistic iPhone sales forecast. Each and every one of them ensures that the iPhone sales will fall for the first time since its launch in 2007. This is something that Apple executives also feel, and even Tim Cook has spoken of this more than likely fall in the sales of the apple smartphone. The latest analysis comes from KGI, with Ming Chi Kuo being the analyst who has also published a report in which he talks about this decline in sales.
Kuo has a high percentage of correctness in his forecasts about Apple and has delivered a report for his investors in which he assures that between 85 and 95 million iPhones will be sold in the first half of 2016, increasing in the second half by another 105- 115 million. These figures give a total of between 190 and 210 million in a whole year, although he believes that sales will fall below 200 million units. But are these figures so bad?
Ming Chi Kuo: "The iPhone is likely to sell less than 200M units in 2016"
Considering that 232 million iPhones were sold in 2015, selling "only" 200 million units would mean more than 10% drop in sales, which is a bigger decline than is talked about on Wall Street: 210-230M in 2016.
The reasons that make Kuo think that Apple will sell "so little" are mainly three: the first is that the users who had to change the screen size will have already done it in 2014 or 2015. Second, the iPhone SE has not included news in terms of design, which will not help users decide to buy it either. In fact, the iPhone SE has a design from 2013 (or 2012 if we consider the iPhone 5). The last reason is that you expect the iPhone 7 Plus has a dual camera that would not be present in the 4,7-inch model and, if we take into account that the "normal" model is the one that is sold the most, it is likely that there are fewer users who decide to change their device for another that has a deficiency so important.
On the other hand, and this is a problem that will be present from now on, there are many much cheaper devices that have hardware "similar" to the iPhone, and soon there will also be dual cameras. There are many users who have chosen an iPhone because it offers much higher quality than the competition, but the differences have narrowed in recent years. In the latter he is right and if Apple continues to raise its prices, "they hang by force" and, at the very least, we will end up considering a change of scenery. We will see what happens in the next few months.