A new iPhone every 3 years? I doubt it

We are still several months away from the presentation of the iPhone 7 but all the rumors suggest that the design of the next iPhone will be very similar to the current one. Yes, there may be doubts about whether or not there will be a headphone jack, whether the dual camera will be exclusive to the 5,5-inch model or whether there will be a Smart Connector or not, but otherwise, there will be no major changes, at least in the outside. Well this could be the trend from now on, at least that is what Nikkei indicates, a Japanese newspaper that ensures that the renewal cycle of the iPhone will be two to three years, starting just this year. Arguments in favor? And against? I detail them below.

An exception in 2016

I think that by now few of us doubt that there will not be a significant aesthetic change in the new iPhone. Despite the fact that I myself was one of the skeptics in this regard, there is no choice but to accept that the iPhone 7 will be very similar to the iPhone 6 and 6s. But that this happens this year does not mean that it will be the pattern to follow from now on. We are faced with an exceptional situation: 2017 is the year in which the tenth anniversary of the iPhone is celebrated, and that means that Apple could have prepared a redesign specially dedicated to this model.

Could you have launched a different model this year and a new one next? It would also have been a valid option, but the cost of a design of this type is high, adapting all the assembly lines to a new design, materials, parts, etc. and suddenly next year to change everything again, it is not very efficient. The most sensible thing seems to "lose" a year with a very similar design and surprise the year of the 10th anniversary celebration with a spectacular iPhone.

Is the innovation exhausted?

One of Nikkei's arguments to support the 3-year cycle is that there is already little room for innovation. That is something that seems obvious, there are not as many surprises as before, the screens are all high definition, the cameras are spectacular, the devices are very thin, premium materials are already the norm and almost all mobiles are already very similar. to the iPhone. But to say that there is no longer enough innovation for two-year cycles is absurd..

Much remains to be done: integrate touch ID into the screen, minimize bezels almost to non-existent, integrate the front camera into the screen, make mechanical parts disappear and use touch buttons, more resistant screens, curved screens, more durable batteries, etc. The list of elements to include in new models is very long, and we are talking only about hardware. If you look at the software, the possibilities for improvement are endless. That there is no longer room for innovation is not true, and it would not be a plausible excuse.

Market saturation?

Indeed, the iPhone market is already saturated. After years of constantly breaking sales records, it seems that we have already peaked and the iPhone begins to fall in sales. Despite the fact that the figures are still astronomical and Apple's income is enviable by any other company, the reality is that the iPhone sells less than before, although it continues to sell very well. Is the market already asking for a less frequent renewal? I doubt it.

Precisely in these times when people no longer see the need to renew their iPhone every year, it is time to use imagination and make them feel that obligation again. Precisely a design change is perhaps the most "simple". The iPhone is often redesigned in the "without S" models and added innovations in the "S" models. Innovations may already be a little scarce (although we have already seen before that there is still a lot of scope) but design will never end because it is a matter of thinking about new shapes, materials and finishes, something infinite. Market saturation, more than an excuse to stop changing, should be the stimulus for the opposite.

The exception that confirms the rule

For all this I do not believe that Apple is going to change its renewal cycle and go on to launch a "new" iPhone every 3 years. This year there will be an exception that will be the confirmation of the rule meticulously followed so far. The tenth anniversary of the iPhone seems to me a more than adequate and probable excuse for this fact, simply that. I do not think that we have to look at other arguments that justify the unjustifiable. Or at least I think so.